(i) There will be no increase in firm available production capacity until the end of 2015 when new machines at St Louis with a total capacity of 60 MW are due for commissioning. However, we find a bleak power scenario in 2015 when we analyse the following additional information: Therefore, the DPM confidently stated that there will be no power blackout in 20.
These margins outstrip the total expected reduction in production capacity of 97 MW because of the unavailability of machines on maintenance (capacity 60 MW) and the possible failure of the biggest machine with a capacity of 37 MW. (iv) Based on the above, the DPM informed Parliament that the total available production capacity will exceed the maximum electricity demand by 118 MW (565 MW minus 447 MW) in 2013 and 104 MW (565 MW minus 461 MW) in 2014. However, we shall assume that he has understated the available capacity of one of the power stations and that the total available capacity is 565 MW. (iii) According to the above table, the total available capacity is 562 MW and not 565 MW as announced by the DPM. (ii) The available power production capacity in Mauritius is detailed in the table below. The figures are in accordance with those given in the CEB’s Integrated Electricity Plan which also predicts that the maximum electricity demand will be 475 MW in 2015. (i) Latest figures show that the maximum electricity demand for 20 are expected to be 447 MW in 2013 and 461 MW in 2014. The information given by the DPM on the power scenario in 20 is as follows:
However, an analysis of the figures given by the DPM to support his assertion reveals that there is a real possibility of a power blackout in the country in 2015. Replying to a private notice question from the Leader of the Opposition on 22 November 2013, the Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) and Minister of Public Utilities has emphatically affirmed that there will be no power blackout in Mauritius in 20.
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